Donald Trump’s selection of Governor Mike Pence gets a approving response from Republicans and conservatives across the critical battleground states – the ones that will decide the election – as 61% of GOP voters in these states say they approve of his selection. While Republicans are more inclined to call it a cautious pick than a bold one, they feel it brings stability to the ticket (as opposed to uncertainty) and feel it will help Trump’s chances. More broadly, however, Pence is not as well known beyond the GOP rank and file and overall the pick gets mixed reviews, with 34% approving, 28% disapproving, and a sizable 38% unsure.
Trump is competitive but trailing in two midwest states including Ohio, where Republicans gather starting Monday, trailing Clinton 44% to 40%, having shaved a point off her lead since May. In Michigan, Clinton leads 42% to 39%, a small lead in a usually-blue, if competitive, state. Trump holds the narrowest of leads in Iowa, one point, at 40% to 39%. Taken together these tell a story of a tight race that largely reflects the national trends, as well as a small advantage for Clinton among likely voters pooled across all eleven battleground states, 41%-40%, similar to the tied race shown nationally at 40-40 in last week’s CBS News poll.
As the conventions begin, the campaigns are aiming at a small slice of voters who could be in play, and the race looks extremely locked-in. More than eight in ten Trump voters – 83% – say they would never consider Hillary Clinton and 85% of Clinton’s battleground-state voters would never consider Donald Trump. Moreover, much of their respective support is based on dislike of the other candidate. More of Trump’s voters say they’re with Trump mainly to oppose Clinton than are with him mainly because they like him, specifically. That figure is a majority in states like Ohio. And many of Clinton’s voters, about one-third, say the same about voting against Donald Trump.
Voters across these states want to hear specifics from Trump in the convention (73% say so) and many – 41% – would like to hear a softened tone and rhetoric. His supporters do want him to try to unify the GOP, and the early indications are that the Pence pick may help with that.
On the issues, Trump has an overall edge on being able to fix the economy, a big edge on being able to change Washington, and being independent from big donors. Clinton leads on being better able to address race relations.
Full story with full results and methods: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-gop-voters-approve-mike-pence-clinton-trump-race-tight-battlegrounds/
This CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on 3383 interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in eleven battleground states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin) and single state polls in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio.All YouGov respondents in the battleground states were recontacted July 15-16, 2016 for a follow-up survey on the Vice Presidential announcement.
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